The Dynamic Effects of Weather Shocks on Agricultural Production, with Ewen Gallic and Gauthier Vermandel (2025)

Journal of Environmental Economics and Management

Abstract: This study investigates the dynamic effects of weather shocks on monthly agricultural production in Peru, using a Local Projection framework. An adverse weather shock, measured by an excess of heat or rain, always generates a negative downturn in agricultural production, but its magnitude and duration depend on several factors, such as the type of crop concerned or the timing at which it occurs. On average, a weather shock – a temperature shock– can cause a monthly decline of 5% in agricultural production for up to four consecutive months. The response is time-dependent: shocks occurring during the growing season exhibit a much larger response. At the macroeconomic level, weather shocks are and entail a decline in inflation, agricultural production, exports, exchange rate and GDP.

Climate vulnerability and monetary policy in a dual economy, with  Barbara Annicchiarico (Forthcoming)

Revue d’économie du développement (RED)

Abstract: This paper analyses[A1]  monetary policy responses to weather shocks in a climate-prone economy with rural agriculture and modern manufacturing sectors. Targeting core rather than headline inflation is optimal when weather shocks hit agriculture harder than manufacturing.

 Recruitment Difficulties Anticipated by Companies: What Are the Explanatory Factors in France?, with Thomas Bezy, Catherine Bruneau, Etienne Lavenant and Dimitris Mavridis (2024)

Economie et Statistique / Economics and Statistics

Abstract:  This article examines the difficulties anticipated by companies in France when it comes to recruiting staff. We match data from the 2018 and 2019 Besoins en Main-d'Œuvre surveys on workforce needs with company data from the FARE annual structural statistics of companies from the ESANE scheme and the DADS (Déclaration annuelle de données sociales – Annual Declaration of Social Data) to examine how recruitment difficulties are distributed by sector, location and size of the establishment and employment area characteristics. Together, these factors explain around 6% of the total variation in recruitment challenges, increasing to 14% when incorporating recruitment difficulties reported in the previous year. Most of the recruitment difficulties anticipated thus result from factors not observed in the data used in this article, potentially linked to the internal characteristics of each establishment, such as the quality of management and specific recruitment processes.

Weather Shocks, Agricultural prices and Inflationary pressures (Last Version)

Job Market Paper

Abstract: This paper studies the impact of weather variations on agricultural production, and how they may affect agricultural prices and price stability in a developing country. Using quarterly data on agricultural production in Peru and weather data in a novel dataset, we estimate the potential impact of adverse weather events to evaluate their effects on agricultural outcomes quarterly. We further estimate the potential impact of these risks on inflation. A dynamic and stochastic general equilibrium model, emphasizing the effects of weather events on agricultural producers, complements this analysis to investigate the channels of transmission. Results show non-linear responses of the agricultural prices to weather shocks, depending on the crop and the timing of the shock. Overall, these shocks induce inflationary pressures on both food and general price indices, although for the latter the effect appears smaller. The theoretical model contributes to understand the transmission channels and shows that reduction in CPI inflation is due to variation in demand for non-agricultural goods and changes in relative prices.

Weather Shocks and Optimal Monetary Policy in a Climate-Vulnerable Economy, with Barbara Annicchiarico

Working Paper available here.

Abstract: Using data from a selection of Latin American countries affected by El Niño-Southern Oscillation climate phenomena, we observe that extreme weather events can be highly disruptive for an economy, particularly in the agricultural sector, while also giving rise to inflationary pressures. Motivated by these findings, this paper examines the optimal stabilization policies for a climate-vulnerable economy with two segmented sectors: agriculture (producing food) and manufacturing. In response to climate disasters affecting agriculture, it is found to be optimal to increase fiscal transfers to farmers while maintaining core inflation at its target level. Deviating from the optimal policy mix results in smaller welfare losses as long as core inflation remains stabilized.

 Can better regulation reduce structural unemployment?, with Gauthier Vermandel and Corentin Roussel (in French) 

France Stratégie (2019) 

Abstract: This work seeks to quantify the reduction in structural unemployment in France that could potentially be achieved through the implementation of reforms aimed at reducing the regulatory burden on firms without undermining the objectives pursued by regulation. The objectives of existing regulations include ensuring the quality of goods and services, guaranteeing consumer safety, and preserving the environment. Poorly calibrated regulations can create rent-seeking situations for companies, resulting in higher prices and lower quality. It is therefore crucial to improve regulation without preventing competition, in order to help lower prices, increase purchasing power, and increase production and thus employment. A comparison is made with France's main partners (notably Germany and the United Kingdom) in order to identify the main avenues of reform proposed by the major international institutions to improve the quality of regulation. An original macroeconomic model is then used to quantify the potential gains of such reforms on the French economy, particularly in terms of structural unemployment.

 How can we explain the recruitment difficulties anticipated by companies?, with Thomas Bezy, Catherine Bruneau, Etienne Lavenant and Dimitris Mavridis (in French) 

France Stratégie (2022) 

Abstract: This study investigates the factors that contribute to difficulties that firms face when trying to recruit new employees. We match firm surveys to firm’s tax records and administrative data to see how factors such as industry, location, company size, and employment characteristics affect recruitment difficulties. Our results show that about 10% of the variance in recruitment difficulties can be explained by these observable factors, and up to 14% when considering difficulties from the previous year. However, most of the difficulties encountered by companies are due to factors not captured by our data, which may be related to internal characteristics of the company such as management quality and the recruitment process.